Three Design Principles for Predicting the Future of the Web

Paul McKey , School of Commerce and Management, SCU. Email: paul.mckey@redbean.com.au

Allan Ellis , School of Commerce and Management, Southern Cross University, Email: allan.ellis@scu.edu.au

Keywords

Web future, trends, technologies, interpretation, prediction, integration, interaction, independence, convergence.

Abstract

Currently the past, present and future of the World Wide Web (Web) is being described using linear progressions based mainly upon technology developments with some corresponding predictions of behaviour of the user population (Web1.0, 2.0 and 3.0). We contend this language and method of description, at least for the prediction of future trends, is flawed due to its over emphasis on technologies, lack of allowance for invention and absence of any socio-cultural perspective.

What is the best means for describing the future of the Web, its impact and the trends that are affecting how we use it? How can we predict how the Web of the future will support or hinder the way we do business, interact and share information? How can investors, developers and consumers alike make rational investment decisions on emerging trends or technologies?

Media convergence is leading to transformational shifts in business, technology and socio-cultural practices that are further driving the rapid expansion and uptake of the Web. In addition to the present technology focus the Web is better described by utilising a set of design principles which act as a lens, or mindset, for viewing innovation and change. We have proposed three simplified principles that will assist in the interpretation and prediction of the impact of convergence. They are; Integration (of systems and information); Interaction (of people, systems and services); and Independence (of people and performance). Together they describe convergence.

We show how these design principles are formed, relate to other useful performance models and finally could be used for identifying, evaluating and comparing the dominant Web trends of the future.